Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
